Frequently Asked Questions


Are your timing models short-term, intermediate-term, or long-term?

We recognize that investors have different risk tolerance levels - that's why we provide bull/bear market signals for both long-term trends and intermediate-term trends for each of the TSP funds.

We define the intermediate-term trend as a period between several weeks and several months long. Focusing on the intermediate-term trend allows a trader to control risk without subjecting investments to the wide price swings associated with major trend following strategies. Our goal is to sidestep corrections and bear markets.

We define the long-term trend as a 1-2 year period. A big picture perspective means more subjecting investments to more volatility, but involves much less trading than is associated with our intermediate-term trend strategies. Our goal is to sidestep bear markets.

We provide; you decide.


How much should I allocate between the various types of monitored markets?

The whole idea of balancing a portfolio with some specific combination of equities and bonds assumes that a portfolio maintains a fully invested position 365 days a year, year in and year out. Our timing strategies inherently reduce the risk that asset allocation attempts to accomplish.


What is relative strength?

Each weekly newsletter provides a relative strength ranking for the C Fund, S Fund, I Fund, F Fund, L Income Fund, L 2050 Fund, L 2040 Fund, L 2030 Fund and L2020 Fund. Relative strength is our own proprietary measure of a particular fund's momentum with more emphasis on recent price behavior. Generally speaking, the higher the relative strength, the greater the potential for return (and volatility).


When is the newsletter published?

Our newsletter is published Sundays - subscribers receive an email link to the current issue as soon as it is posted to our website. For changes to timing models or model portfolios between issues, we email subscribers an alert by 11 pm Eastern time. About four times a year we'll take a break and publish abbreviated reports.


I am looking for non-TSP advice. Can you help?

Check out our sister publication, The Mutual Fund Strategist. You'll discover a familiar look and feel. The Mutual Fund Strategist offers Aggressive, Moderate and Conservative Portfolios plus timing strategies for 18 different markets. Each issue includes relative strength rankings for the following categories/families: US bond funds, US high yield bond funds, US municipal bond funds, international bond funds, US equity funds, international equity funds, Asian funds, European funds, Japan funds, Latin American funds, gold funds, commodity funds, DireXion, Fidelity, ProFunds, Rydex and Vanguard.


What is your cancellation policy?

If you're not completely satisfied with our newsletter, for any reason, we will provide a pro-rated refund based on the number of remaining complete calendar months no questions asked.


More questions? Contact us for assistance.


Thrift Savings Plan on the web

TSP.govTSP on Twitter TSP on FacebookTSP on YouTube
Thrift Savings Plan
Official Website
Thrift Savings Plan
on Twitter
Thrift Savings Plan
on Facebook
Thrift Savings Plan
on YouTube | Providing Investment Advice Since 1982